This year it'll happen.
This year I will pick the Derby winner.
I've picked one winner before: Charismatic. Mostly, that was based on his physique and the way he came up to the race. I remember his coat looked deep as velvet and he glowed. (And I really, really am rooting for his son Sun King to win the Derby this year. In your face to those who sold Charismatic to Japan!)
But now I think I know more, so I'm going to get serious about tabulating all the various stats and really picking the colt who can get it done. I'm looking at winning times for major stakes races at 1 1/16th miles and above, ability to rate and handle traffic, running style (deep closers spoil Triple Crowns but rarely win Derbys), pedigree, two-year-old record and race record during 2005. Plus intangibles. I'll even look at Beyer figures as a tie-breaker.
So far, we've had two major prep races, both run today. In those races, three horses looked worthy of further consideration.
In the Santa Catalina, run at 1 1/16th miles, Declan's Moon was totally superior. He looks like a horse that can go a distance, he rated nicely while wide, and he won easily, physically relaxed and ears pricked. Going Wild, in second, looks like a sprinter and ran like the mile and a sixteenth was a bit too far for him. Declan's Moon shows every sign of being able to go farther.
In the Fountain of Youth, run at 1 1/8th miles, I think High Fly was on his last legs to hold on. His stride looked short and his head was up in the air. Bandini, a magnificent individual, looked like he had spat out the bit in the stretch, but then he came on again willingly to finish a close second; this was only his fourth career start. I'm not sure if his closing kick was as good as it looked, because High Fly looked like he was struggling, but he at least got back on task. Both horses did stalk professionally during the race.
So far, I'd give Declan's Moon the edge. I'm not seriously considering the sprinter Lost in the Fog as a contender right now - if he wins at 1 1/16th and up, I'll look again.
I've picked one winner before: Charismatic. Mostly, that was based on his physique and the way he came up to the race. I remember his coat looked deep as velvet and he glowed. (And I really, really am rooting for his son Sun King to win the Derby this year. In your face to those who sold Charismatic to Japan!)
But now I think I know more, so I'm going to get serious about tabulating all the various stats and really picking the colt who can get it done. I'm looking at winning times for major stakes races at 1 1/16th miles and above, ability to rate and handle traffic, running style (deep closers spoil Triple Crowns but rarely win Derbys), pedigree, two-year-old record and race record during 2005. Plus intangibles. I'll even look at Beyer figures as a tie-breaker.
So far, we've had two major prep races, both run today. In those races, three horses looked worthy of further consideration.
In the Santa Catalina, run at 1 1/16th miles, Declan's Moon was totally superior. He looks like a horse that can go a distance, he rated nicely while wide, and he won easily, physically relaxed and ears pricked. Going Wild, in second, looks like a sprinter and ran like the mile and a sixteenth was a bit too far for him. Declan's Moon shows every sign of being able to go farther.
In the Fountain of Youth, run at 1 1/8th miles, I think High Fly was on his last legs to hold on. His stride looked short and his head was up in the air. Bandini, a magnificent individual, looked like he had spat out the bit in the stretch, but then he came on again willingly to finish a close second; this was only his fourth career start. I'm not sure if his closing kick was as good as it looked, because High Fly looked like he was struggling, but he at least got back on task. Both horses did stalk professionally during the race.
So far, I'd give Declan's Moon the edge. I'm not seriously considering the sprinter Lost in the Fog as a contender right now - if he wins at 1 1/16th and up, I'll look again.
posted by Kyri at 9:35 PM
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