Further Down the Derby Trail
We've gotten a little farther, but the picture doesn't seem much more clear to me.
I'm hoping for another round of preps to clarify. We'll see.
High Fly looks like one of the major competitors. His recent 1 1/8th mile win was considerably superior to his last; he was in better shape. But I still don't like him. I don't know if it's his grinding style, without high turn of foot at any point, or his short pushing stride (watch a recording of Real Quiet if you want to see the gliding way that Derby horses should move), or something indefinable, but I don't like him for a mile and a quarter.
I can't believe Noble Causeway will have the experience needed, but he ran pretty well. Besides, I work for Barnes & Noble.
Bandini continues to impress me with his physical appearance, but I'm waiting to see what he does next.
I don't think at this point that Rockport Harbor is going to make the Derby. If he does, he seems to have considerable talent but a front-running style would not serve him well, especially with High Limit in the mix.
The latter ran a good race in his last, although not flattered by Vicarage's bounce in the Florida Derby. But he seems to be a confirmed front-runner and I don't like that in a Derby horse, War Emblem notwithstanding.
Greater Good -- Could be the dark horse, but I need to see more.
Consolidator is unquestionably fast, appears to have a lot of quality, and I would consider him to be a top contender even though his most recent time was helped by track condition. I like the way he moves.
Flower Alley and Wild Desert - I loved the way these colts charged through the mud in the Lane's End. Whether the track condition moved them up, though, remains to be seen.
Sun King is gorgeous, but needs to run faster against better to be considered a top contender. Once again -- waiting for the next start.
Beyond that -- I don't even have a full field here -- Sweet Catomine is a filly, therefore a longshot. And Afleet Alex is going to be lucky to have any career at all after the way he's been mismanaged. The Rushaway top two finishers both ran good races but don't really look like Grade 1 quality; same with the WinStar.
Tentatively, I'd say High Fly and Consolidator are the early favorites and Wild Desert is my wacky longshot. We'll see.
I'm hoping for another round of preps to clarify. We'll see.
High Fly looks like one of the major competitors. His recent 1 1/8th mile win was considerably superior to his last; he was in better shape. But I still don't like him. I don't know if it's his grinding style, without high turn of foot at any point, or his short pushing stride (watch a recording of Real Quiet if you want to see the gliding way that Derby horses should move), or something indefinable, but I don't like him for a mile and a quarter.
I can't believe Noble Causeway will have the experience needed, but he ran pretty well. Besides, I work for Barnes & Noble.
Bandini continues to impress me with his physical appearance, but I'm waiting to see what he does next.
I don't think at this point that Rockport Harbor is going to make the Derby. If he does, he seems to have considerable talent but a front-running style would not serve him well, especially with High Limit in the mix.
The latter ran a good race in his last, although not flattered by Vicarage's bounce in the Florida Derby. But he seems to be a confirmed front-runner and I don't like that in a Derby horse, War Emblem notwithstanding.
Greater Good -- Could be the dark horse, but I need to see more.
Consolidator is unquestionably fast, appears to have a lot of quality, and I would consider him to be a top contender even though his most recent time was helped by track condition. I like the way he moves.
Flower Alley and Wild Desert - I loved the way these colts charged through the mud in the Lane's End. Whether the track condition moved them up, though, remains to be seen.
Sun King is gorgeous, but needs to run faster against better to be considered a top contender. Once again -- waiting for the next start.
Beyond that -- I don't even have a full field here -- Sweet Catomine is a filly, therefore a longshot. And Afleet Alex is going to be lucky to have any career at all after the way he's been mismanaged. The Rushaway top two finishers both ran good races but don't really look like Grade 1 quality; same with the WinStar.
Tentatively, I'd say High Fly and Consolidator are the early favorites and Wild Desert is my wacky longshot. We'll see.
posted by Kyri at 4:42 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home