And Here He Is...

When I said I meant to pick the Derby winner this year I really didn't realize how tough this year would be. It's going to be a great race, with multiple worthwhile contenders.

I have four top picks, and here they are:

Bellamy Road. Well, of course. After his performance in the Wood Memorial, he has to be the favorite. He has the physical quality and his pedigree looks good for the distance.

But there are some questions, too. Does he need the lead? Will he lose his composure if he's buried in traffic or pressed hard by other speed? He's going to be the target everyone else is gunning for.

I'd like to see a good thing get better, to see Bellamy Road win, but I can't call it a sure thing.

Bandini. Physically magnificent; bred to get the distance. The knock on him is his somewhat slow running times, but that could be explained by the tracks he's been running on. He can close, and I think he has a great chance.

Afleet Alex. A cute horse with tremendous foot speed and agility, whose Arkansas Derby was super-impressive. I think he's a good bet to do well in traffic, and he has a good level of experience.

His pedigree is OK -- by a good racehorse who preferred shorter distances, with distance breeding on his dam's side. To me, the real knock on him is his inexperienced jockey and the bizarre training he's been put through. Is he really thriving on all the extra work, or is he on the verge of burning out? Was the Rebel really a fluke? We'll see.

Then there's High Fly. I don't really care for this colt's way of going, and I'm not sure he can get a mile and a quarter; he's not really bred for it and his short strides don't fill me with confidence. On the other hand, he has as many wins at 1 1/8th as any other horse in the field. He has great experience, a competitive personality, a win at Churchill, and Jerry Bailey. Particularly if a speed duel develops, I give him a good chance.

Then there are the horses who don't seem like top competitors, but who wouldn't totally shock me:

Flower Alley. Proved himself game in the Lane's End.

Greeley's Galaxy. Big Illinois Derby win, although recent training form has been questionable (he seems to be tiring toward the end of his works).

Wilko. Has won Grade 1, can close, and always tries hard.

High Limit. May be one-dimensional speed, but has been training well.

Noble Causeway. Inexperienced, but bred for the distance.

Sun King. I haven't seen much I liked from him since his easy victory in the Tampa Bay, but other people like him, and I did pick his sire to win the Derby back when.

Then there are some who would really surprise me:

Greater Good (off form and training poorly)
Buzzards Bay (doesn't impress me physically, post 20, winner of weak SA Derby)
Coin Silver (may be improving at right time, but hasn't shown enough yet)
Andromeda's Hero (would have to improve a lot)
Giacomo (would have to improve even more)
Going Wild (I still think this horse wants to run 7 furlongs)
Spanish Chestnut (Cheap speed)
Don't Get Mad (Deep closer, hasn't shown he belongs with these)
Sort It Out (would have to improve a lot)
Closing Argument (ditto)

But I think I have to pick a winner, to be fair, not just list four likelies.

I really want Bellamy Road to win by open lengths. But I'm not going to pick him, because of his inexperience. If he's a great one, he'll show us, if not on Saturday then subsequently.

I'm torn because on rational numbers High Fly looks best to me, but my 'eye for a horse' (which does serve me well sometimes) just doesn't like him.


I'm going for Bandini. He's the complete package in terms of breeding and connections and physical class, his slow finish last out can be explained by the deep track, he's training forwardly, he can close. He's inexperienced but I think he can overcome that. Go, Black Stallion, Go.

(If you lose hundreds of dollars on Bandini three days from now: I am not responsible. Caveat Lector.)

--Kyri