Picking the Derby Winner
I tried this last year, as you may remember.
Here are the contenders in order, with their numerical score as they come out according to my system:
Sweetnorthernsaint 21 114 stalk/speed 1st G2. Huge last Beyer. Looks like a real contender . Will he rate?
Brother Derek 21 105 speed 1st G1. Possibly the best horse in the race as a sheer athlete, but he has limited experience with large fields and I'm not convinced the outside post position won't hurt him.
Keyed Entry 21 101 speed 3rd G1 Has never won over 7 ½ furlongs, speed crazy.
Bob And John 20 103 stalk/close 1st G1. Right running style, improving, looks very good just now and won’t mind if it rains. 1 1/8th not a problem. LS
Barbaro 17 104 speed 1st G1. Undefeated. Unclear if he can rate. Looks to be coming into the race well. In top three of none of Brisnet’s figures.
Sinister Minister 16 116 speed 1st G1 Also works very fast. One of the better speedsters with a win at 1 1/8th. May be a Keeneland freak -- look at his record before his last race.
Point Determined 16 101 stalk 2nd G1. Definite potential, and I loved his sire, but he just hasn't really ever caught my eye. LS
Cause to Believe 15 102 stalk/close 3rd G2. Seemed not to handle track in last race; doesn’t look like he’s training well but the connections say he's always like that. Blew right by Sinister Minister not long ago. Style and overall quality suggest not throwing him out completely. LS
A.P. Warrior 15 100 stalk/close 3rd G1. Right running style, but erratic quality a concern. I haven't seen this horse really look like he wants to win.
Sharp Humor 14 104 speed 2nd G1. Brave speed horse possibly questionable at 1 1/4th. LS
Lawyer Ron 14 101 speed 1st G2. This will be my sentimental pick – a hard-trying horse with tremendous ability. Coming into the race beautifully. So why are his numbers so low? The reason is that the southeastern "track" to the Derby doesn't include any Grade 1's and that his connections, trainer and jockey, are not winning at sufficiently high percentages to get points. And something a bit more ominous: Lawyer doesn't score well on most of the Brisnet figures, which I've been using lately with quite a bit of luck.
The first time I saw Lawyer I thought he was my Derby pick and I still think so, but there are challenges in his path.
Showing Up 14 96 speed/stalk 1st G2. Concerned about inexperience and lack of distance form.
Steppenwolfer 13 98 close 2nd G2 Another closer, but not wild about how he looks coming into the race
Private Vow 11 96 stalk/speed 3rd G2. Form does not suggest success here.
Bluegrass Cat 10 92 stalk 4th G1. Not in good form, although could possibly come back around at right moment.
Deputy Glitters 10 86 stalk 6th G1. Would be a surprise, just doesn’t look good enough.
Storm Treasure 9 102 close 2nd G1 Would have to improve, but does seem to be doing that. Has a win over the track.
Jazil 9 101 close 2nd G1 Can close, looks professional, could be this year’s Giacomo. 1 1/8th no problem. Second fastest “late pace” figure after SNS. LS
Seaside Retreat 9 79 close 6th G1. Beaten 32 lengths in his last start
Flashy Bull 6 92 stalk 7th G1. Would shock.
After all this, Lawyer Ron is still my pick, because he just is, logic or not.
Realistically, I'd probably go with some combination of him, SNS, BD, Bob and John, Barbaro, and CTB as a longshot.
This brings me to a concern.
I think the Derby field should be limited to 12. It's only a matter of time before someone clips heels around a turn or someone goes down on the lead and the chain reaction costs human and equine lives. A 20-horse field makes a dangerous sport more dangerous. In addition, every year good horses don't get to run their race because horses who got beaten 32 lengths last time out are in their way.
Every once in a while, like last year, a horse wins who I wouldn't have thought should be included. But last year was an anomaly because of the pace scenario. And do the post-Derby race records of Giacomo and Closing Argument really suggest that they were deserving?
Another thought: had Giacomo and Closing Argument, not to mention Spanish Chestnut, who wasn't even there to win, not been in the race, Afleet Alex might have won the Triple Crown. And he was deserving.
This year, at least every horse in the field is well-meant, and over half the field has a genuine chance. It looks like a fantastic race.
Here are the contenders in order, with their numerical score as they come out according to my system:
Sweetnorthernsaint 21 114 stalk/speed 1st G2. Huge last Beyer. Looks like a real contender . Will he rate?
Brother Derek 21 105 speed 1st G1. Possibly the best horse in the race as a sheer athlete, but he has limited experience with large fields and I'm not convinced the outside post position won't hurt him.
Keyed Entry 21 101 speed 3rd G1 Has never won over 7 ½ furlongs, speed crazy.
Bob And John 20 103 stalk/close 1st G1. Right running style, improving, looks very good just now and won’t mind if it rains. 1 1/8th not a problem. LS
Barbaro 17 104 speed 1st G1. Undefeated. Unclear if he can rate. Looks to be coming into the race well. In top three of none of Brisnet’s figures.
Sinister Minister 16 116 speed 1st G1 Also works very fast. One of the better speedsters with a win at 1 1/8th. May be a Keeneland freak -- look at his record before his last race.
Point Determined 16 101 stalk 2nd G1. Definite potential, and I loved his sire, but he just hasn't really ever caught my eye. LS
Cause to Believe 15 102 stalk/close 3rd G2. Seemed not to handle track in last race; doesn’t look like he’s training well but the connections say he's always like that. Blew right by Sinister Minister not long ago. Style and overall quality suggest not throwing him out completely. LS
A.P. Warrior 15 100 stalk/close 3rd G1. Right running style, but erratic quality a concern. I haven't seen this horse really look like he wants to win.
Sharp Humor 14 104 speed 2nd G1. Brave speed horse possibly questionable at 1 1/4th. LS
Lawyer Ron 14 101 speed 1st G2. This will be my sentimental pick – a hard-trying horse with tremendous ability. Coming into the race beautifully. So why are his numbers so low? The reason is that the southeastern "track" to the Derby doesn't include any Grade 1's and that his connections, trainer and jockey, are not winning at sufficiently high percentages to get points. And something a bit more ominous: Lawyer doesn't score well on most of the Brisnet figures, which I've been using lately with quite a bit of luck.
The first time I saw Lawyer I thought he was my Derby pick and I still think so, but there are challenges in his path.
Showing Up 14 96 speed/stalk 1st G2. Concerned about inexperience and lack of distance form.
Steppenwolfer 13 98 close 2nd G2 Another closer, but not wild about how he looks coming into the race
Private Vow 11 96 stalk/speed 3rd G2. Form does not suggest success here.
Bluegrass Cat 10 92 stalk 4th G1. Not in good form, although could possibly come back around at right moment.
Deputy Glitters 10 86 stalk 6th G1. Would be a surprise, just doesn’t look good enough.
Storm Treasure 9 102 close 2nd G1 Would have to improve, but does seem to be doing that. Has a win over the track.
Jazil 9 101 close 2nd G1 Can close, looks professional, could be this year’s Giacomo. 1 1/8th no problem. Second fastest “late pace” figure after SNS. LS
Seaside Retreat 9 79 close 6th G1. Beaten 32 lengths in his last start
Flashy Bull 6 92 stalk 7th G1. Would shock.
After all this, Lawyer Ron is still my pick, because he just is, logic or not.
Realistically, I'd probably go with some combination of him, SNS, BD, Bob and John, Barbaro, and CTB as a longshot.
This brings me to a concern.
I think the Derby field should be limited to 12. It's only a matter of time before someone clips heels around a turn or someone goes down on the lead and the chain reaction costs human and equine lives. A 20-horse field makes a dangerous sport more dangerous. In addition, every year good horses don't get to run their race because horses who got beaten 32 lengths last time out are in their way.
Every once in a while, like last year, a horse wins who I wouldn't have thought should be included. But last year was an anomaly because of the pace scenario. And do the post-Derby race records of Giacomo and Closing Argument really suggest that they were deserving?
Another thought: had Giacomo and Closing Argument, not to mention Spanish Chestnut, who wasn't even there to win, not been in the race, Afleet Alex might have won the Triple Crown. And he was deserving.
This year, at least every horse in the field is well-meant, and over half the field has a genuine chance. It looks like a fantastic race.
posted by Kyri at 9:15 PM
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