And yet more thoughts...

This is how the Kentucky Derby contenders line up, in order, using a point system I've been devising:

Bandini
High Fly
High Limit
Closing Argument
Flower Alley
Noble Causeway
Afleet Alex
Buzzards Bay
Wilko
Bellamy Road
Greeley's Galaxy
Sun King
Coin Silver
Andromeda's Hero
Giacomo
Sort It Out
Don't Get Mad
Greater Good
Going Wild
Spanish Chestnut

What strikes me about this method is that it still produces my original pick and my original unlikelies. But it doesn't allow for tossing a race out (which is one reason why Afleet Alex is so low, although not having run in Grade 1 is another major reason), it doesn't allow for visual impressions or recent training, and it gives points for current leading sires even if they are sprint sires (which raises some horses higher than they probably should be). Obviously I think both Alex and Bellamy Road should be rated much higher.

However, especially when combined with the fact that he's been training well, it does give me a bit more respect for High Limit. And makes me wonder if Closing Argument could run third.

If Bellamy Road is what I hope he is, then he wins. If not, then I still give Bandini the edge, followed closely by High Fly, with Afleet Alex a definite possibility but with a bit more downside than the other two. Of course, even if Bellamy doesn't win he could still get a minor award.

We'll see...